What Numbers Can and Can’t Tell You
When the year draws to a close, numbers become extremely important. This is true particularly as companies, organizations, and households evaluate their budgets. “How have we done?” they wonder. The right figures can help answer this question.
Similarly, sometimes churches wonder, “How are we doing?” Pastors especially try to discern what is happening in their congregations. Whether it is pride or a sincere concern driving their questions, they need a sign—some metric to determine how well the ministry is going. For most ministries, this metric is worship attendance.
Attendance is the most common factor for ministry evaluation for several reasons. First, numbers are relatively easy to track. Second, the counting culture among churches meshes well with the corporate, organizational culture by which everyone is influenced in different ways. Third, our ecclesial artifacts, such as attendance boards and bulletins, often become deeply embedded in our sense of significance. For these reasons, I don’t suspect numbers will lose their power anytime soon.
However, there has been some discussion recently about the need for churches to change their ministry scorecards [1]. As one author notes, there is a growing concern that buildings, bodies, and budgets comprise an old scorecard [2]. This is certainly a matter of practical concern. No Christian can avoid being in the company of new people (even believers) who ask, “How big is your church?”
Regardless of how unspiritual this question may sound, it’s actually an excellent question: How big is our church? That is to say, ‘faithful’ and ‘fruitful’ are two big things which churches should seek to be [3]. Yet can numbers help us evaluate ourselves reliably along these lines? I want to reframe the way we use numbers by providing four axioms that help us count in a more faithful and realistic way.
1. Insomuch that Numbers Represent People, They Matter.
The most important word in this axiom is represent. Leaders who track numerical activity can be misled when they forget the referents behind ’45,’ ‘92’, or ‘378.’ Insomuch that these numbers represent God’s people, they matter greatly. This is what gives numbers their force—that they refer to never-dying souls for whom Christ died.
If numbers didn’t matter, it is difficult to understand why Luke uses numbers to at least partially describe the early church’s growth (e.g. Acts 2:41). Though we can speculate about the precise function that numerical data is supposed to serve, it nevertheless tells us that there was something significant happening, and numbers are part of how that judgment is made.
2. Numbers Can Be Misleading Indicators of Church Health and Faithfulness.
This axiom is relevant more toward those who are overly optimistic about positive numbers. There is a healthy place for enthusiasm whenever God’s people assemble for worship. After all, the family is coming together to acknowledge Christ as Lord and to be challenged and shaped by His Word. It’s only natural then for believers to rejoice when more persons are present. After all, doesn’t God deserve the worship and praise of all people? Isn’t it a good thing for more people to be under the Word than fewer?
However, does the number gathered reflect the number committed? What if the church next door is half as big as your church, but is sending out twice as many missionaries? What if attendance is higher this Sunday than last week because you’re giving out free gas cards for an attendance boost? What if the preaching challenges no one, which is more inviting for nominal Christians? A better question in light of our enthusiasm over attendance might be to ask if our counting calls attention to conversion, membership, and sacrificial commitment to the Gospel. Sometimes numbers may not always reflect long-term, spiritual dynamics in the church.
3. Numbers Can Be an Excuse for Unfaithfulness.
Being the sinners that we are, we’ll always find ways to excuse failures in obedience. Sometimes sparse numbers in ministry can alert us to decline, which may point to a lack of faithful evangelism and discipleship. Sometimes smaller congregations (especially those situated near other massive churches) can grow inwardly-focused and even come to despise neighboring congregations. “They’ve compromised,” some will say. “They’re watering down the Gospel. We don’t keep records because we don’t want to get caught up in the numbers-game.”
Long-time pastor and educator Terry Forrest challenged his pastoral students to resist the mentality which says, “We might be small, but at least we’re faithful!” In fact, one may not be very faithful at all. Just as churches with burgeoning numbers may confuse attendance with faithfulness (axiom #2), churches with small numbers may be unfaithful.
4. Numbers Can Be a Limited, But Useful Metric for Tracking What Is Happening in the Life of the Church Over Time.
Each word in this axiom warrants careful attention as it attempts to nuance common misconceptions on counting. Let’s consider a few anecdotes that help put numbers in perspective by considering their limitations.
Imagine a new church is planted. Over the span of six months, the congregation grows from two church-planting families (eight people) to 30 members. However, in month seven, attendance drops to fifteen. What happened? Is it time to shake the dust from one’s feet in resignation and move on? In today’s economy, two or three families can be relocated to another region anytime. That’s what happened in this example. However, without any context we may assume (looking at the situation from afar) that the church plant is failing.
Consider another scenario: A congregation of 900 watches their long-time pastor retire. Another pastor is called with a healthy affirmative vote. Six months in, the new pastor is faced with an unresolved moral issue with a beloved staff member. The staff member is asked to resign. After hearing the news, ninety people leave. At the end of year one, the new pastor must face the fact that the church witnessed a 10% decline on his watch. Is he a success or failure?
Most readers would recognize that only an uncharitable evaluation of these situations would consider these ministries failures. Yet frequently numerical measures tend to be one-dimensional, focusing on only one detail (worship attendance, especially), and mostly out of context. However, let’s consider some different numbers.
How many new attenders came back a second, third, or fourth time? How many times did the average church member share the Gospel in the past year? How many new believers were obedient to baptism, and received mentorship from older Christians? What percentage of the couples who courted and married in the church family are still together twenty-five years later? How many students in the local elementary school have shoes on their feet because of our local church?
It is important to ask why we count some things, but not others, and also how quickly some numbers can be truly determinative at all.
Conclusion
Ministry happens over time. Therefore, numbers should always be placed in some sort of broader context, such as a church’s history. Only then can we gain understanding for the sake of more faithful ministry.
A church may have witnessed poor attendance in July. Looking at July attendance for the past five years might reveal whether this is a trend related to people vacationing, or if it is a recent development due to some acute problem. An aging congregation in a Northeastern or Midwestern church will probably have lower attendance in the winter months due to inclement weather and poor road conditions. A more helpful response might be to move beyond despair over attendance, and ask, “How can we better minister to members of our church family hindered from corporate worship during these months?”
Counting should help us maintain perspective of the whole flock, as well as the individual sheep. This is a tension that pastors especially have to navigate. Though we shepherd the whole flock, not everyone is at the same place. They have their own failures and victories. But numbers can reveal or conceal that which is won and lost in the trenches of Monday-Saturday life.
Ultimately, perhaps the most important counting practice is to relate attendance to faithful membership. Given the Scripture’s message about church membership, we learn that we’re not simply trying to fill pews in the short-run. We’re aiming to create disciples. Sometimes the language of “more” presupposes a brick-and-mortar, come-and-see approach to ministry. Yet ministry is a flesh-and-Spirit enterprise that has more to do with the church being the church in the world, which in turn draws people into the community of faith. “How many attended today” must give way to “how many people are converted and committed?”
Every conscientious Christian (pastors included) will have to consider how these axioms address their ministry situation. Depending on the history of your church, your counting culture will be unique. Yet I believe these axioms present a viable way forward that can help us strive toward better, and not simply more. After all, better tends to lead toward more with time, the Word, and a great deal of prayer.
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[1] Reggie McNeal, Missional Renaissance: Changing the Scorecard for the Church (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2009); Ed Stetzer & Thom Rainer, Transformational Church: Creating a New Scorecard for Congregations (Nashville: B&H Books, 2010).
[2] Transformational Church, 26.
[3] While the juxtaposition of these two terms are derived from Tim Keller’s Center Church (2012), they tend to function differently in my philosophy of ministry.
For Further Reading:
Kent & Barbara Hughes, Liberating Ministry from the Success Syndrome
Tim Keller, “Leadership and Church Size Dynamics.” Accessible at http://theresurgence.com/files/2011/02/14/Leadership_and_Church_Size_Dynamics.pdf
Michael McKinley, “Church Size: The Fault Line in the Movement.” Accessible at http://www.9marks.org/blog/church-size-fault-line-movement
J.I. Packer, A Passion for Faithfulness: Wisdom from the Book of Nehemiah
Paul David Tripp, Dangerous Calling: Confronting the Unique Challenges of Pastoral Ministry
December 17, 2013
Excellent!
December 17, 2013
Thanks, Jacob. Always good to hear from you.